In typical 476th fashion, the debrief probably took longer than the actual flight.
Desired Focus Points:
1. Why did blue have poor timeline awareness?
Contributing Factor: A/A Threats not briefed in detail to all flights.
A/A targeting gameplans were not briefed in detail within the strike flights, so there was not a pre-agreed A/A targeting plan. When operating with an A/A threat, all flights should brief planned engagement ranges, flows and defenses.
Contributing Factor: Blue unaware of Red Pk Criteria.
Blue was expecting that shooting 2 AMRAAMs per bandit presentation would assure Pk. Two Red Pk Miss calls in a row surprised ZY flight. Recommendation: treat every shot as if it will miss and stay on timelines.
Contributing Factor: Draggy loadout.
All blue fighters were loaded with A/G stores, which significantly limited G available and acceleration performance.
Root Cause: Poor Timeline Mech
Most blue flighters executed poor timeline mech. Employment past Transition Ranges, slow to initiate cranks, and failure to recognize when bandit was able to reference High MAR and was violating timeline mach assumptions.
Significant time spent in Stern WEZ running cold; once you’re inside Stern WEZ range, and the bandit has an employment opportunity, the lower risk option is to pitch back and kill the bandit. Remember pitchback criteria: Directed, Defensive or Naked. Stern WEZ violation while spiked meets Defensive criteria.
2. Why did ZY12 Die to the SA-2?
Contributing Factor: Late HARM employment due to SAM remaining silent.
The SA-2 did not activate it’s FAN SONG until ZY flight was within 15NM. ZY had planned tactics expecting that the FAN SONG would illuminate at close to max range, allowing for greater standoff. Had ZY recognized engagement would have occurred at shorter ranges, they would have employed via decoy-shooter roles to optimize aircraft survivability.
Root Cause: ZY12 failed to employ countermeasures.
ZY12 did not recognize range from the SAM and incorrectly believed countermeasures were not required for defeat.
3. Why did blue have poor Coordination/SA?
Contributing Factor: slow directive targeting by flight leads.
When flights are facing threats inside MTR, per the 3-1 targeting matrix, they should directively target other flight leads A/R to ensure no untargeted groups threaten friendlies. ZY/SE/PN flights did not promptly re-assign targeting to ensure coverage.
Contributing Factor: Poor comms
Numerous blue comms were late or not IAW 3-1 guidance. More detailed briefing on expected comms, and more practice would improve this element.
Root Cause: Incorrect Assignment of Package Lead by Planners
Package lead was assigned to the ZY flight lead. As the engagement developed and ZY flight became engaged they lost SA on the overall picture. SE21 should have been the assigned package lead so they could maintain better overall situational awareness and control the package better.
Learning Point:
1. Why was blue late to push?
Root Cause: Poor planned loadouts.
Loadouts were planned by the overall package lead and red-air. Incorrect planning assumption of the impact of the drag count/weight significantly limited the performance available to ZY and SE flights.
Recommendation for planning is to reference performance manuals for planned drag counts instead of working off gouge to understand actual excess power available. If possible, carry fewer weapons across more aircraft.